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Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment

Authors Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, Cass R. Sunstein  
Publisher Little, Brown Spark  
Publish May 18, 2021  
ISBN 9780316451406  

A new book by Nobel economics prize winner Daniel Kahneman asks why does everyone make such bad decisions and what can we do about it?

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Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients—or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants—or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical.

In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions.

Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment—and what we can do about it.

May 14, 2021, Fri ...
Nobelist Daniel Kahneman is out with new book on why we all make bad decisions
Kahneman is one of the founding fathers of behavioral economics and author of the seminal work "Thinking Fast and Slow."
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